The Dutch government is facing a €200m shortfall in gambling tax revenue after increasing the betting and lottery tax from 30.5% to 34.2% on 1 January 2025 and plans to raise it to 37.8% in 2026. The tax hike was supposed to fill the coffers, but it seems to be backfiring.

Revenue forecasts for 2025 now show a drop to €850m, down from earlier projections of €1.06bn — a shortfall mainly due to lower player activity and operator profits.

NOGA and other industry associations warned beforehand that higher tax rates would drive players to unlicensed offshore platforms, undermining the regulation and reducing the legal market share. Those warnings are now being repeated in parliament.

The finance ministry hasn’t commented on the revenue decline yet. Analysts and parliamentarians are calling for a policy review before the 2026 budget.

For details on the changes to Dutch betting and lottery tax rates, see the official government announcement: Betting and lottery tax increase − Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO).

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